Tuesday, August 24, 2010

My [updated] picks for the NH Primary

I'm editing my selections for the NH Primary and will post my reasons with each endorsement...

US Senate
: Jim Bender - This is a tough one for me. There are 3 candidates in this race that I keep bouncing between for different reasons. This is a far better position to be in than we were in during the 2008 Presidential Primaries where we were forced to to pick the fruit with the least rot - this time we've got 3 very good/conservative candidates to pick from!


Bill Binnie is dangerous and I urge everyone to steer clear of him. He's been a supporter of John Lynch (donated to his campaigns) and just seems like an arrogant RINO to me. I'm tempted to delete that to honor The Gipper's 11th Commandment, but this is a 6 year seat and a critical time for the federal government, and so I'm leaving it.
Kelly Ayotte is taking a lot of heat for a few of her previous positions on some issues - I think a lot of that heat is unjustified/misinformed, and I'd support her in the general election no questions asked. She was my previous pick in this race for the same reason I picked Stephen over Kimball in the gubernatorial race below - we must win this seat! That having been said, I think this race might be a fun one to watch this fall regardless of the GOP candidate - Hodes isn't going back to DC and that's great news for the people of NH and the USA! So the reason for my change here is that I want a solid Constitutionalist in Washington who's undeniably demonstrated knowledge of the limits that document puts on the federal government. Kelly's opposition is trying hard to frame her as an insider/statist (most of which is completely undeserved) who couldn't handle her role as AG (from a libertarian's viewpiont) and is backed by the political machine in DC. As unfair as this is, the message is sticking and spreading, and the rebuttals take more than the quick 30 seconds needed spread equally fast. This is causing some significant disdain - including pledges not to come out and vote for her in the general should she win the nomination - from the TEA activists across the state. Thus, her November-power is significantly degraded.

This leaves Ovide and Bender. I like Ovide, he's a great guy, and a long-time conservative. He'd also certainly get my support for the general should he pull off the nomination. But he does come with some November hurdles as well - namely, the catholic church. His affiliation with the archdiocese - specifically, his defense of the church during the sexual abuse scandals - will come back to bite him in a general election. Further, I'll repeat something I've said for several years - I am both Christian and Right but I can't stand the Christian Right. Socially speaking, Ovide's catholicism is going to creep into his politics - and I'm not talking about abortion alone (this is the singular area where I agree with the Christian Right; but that's a non-issue in this race). I'm talking about social issues where the right tries to tell you what's right or wrong and force their beliefs on you: same-sex marriage (I am in favor of removing the government from marriage entirely - eliminating the debate entirely from public/political influence - marriage is a religious institution and the government should play no role in determining who can marry whom), drug-laws (just another form of prohibition that has ultimately continued organized crime), etc. On social issues, I am Libertarian to the core, and I fear Ovide is not.


That leaves us with Jim Bender. I like Jim - I've met him a few times, heard him speak a few times, watched some of the debates. This guy is the real deal. Constitutionalist, businessman, first-time politician. I think he'd have been a great lower-tier candidate to get some name recognition before running for the US Senate, but I also think he's done a great job overcoming that name-recognition problem. I really wish he or Ovide would drop out and endorse the other, because they are the best two candidates in this race - stealing votes from each other - rather than the front running Kelly, but in the absence of this, you have to pick, so I'm coming down on the side of Jim Bender.


Governor
: John Stephen - We need a candidate who has the capability of defeating Lynch in November. John is the best chance the GOP has. Jack is great - don't dislike a thing about him and would support him if he takes the nomination, but John is equally good on the issues and is far more likely to pull off the November win.


US CD2: No change here - Jennifer Horn has and will keep my endorsement. She's been active around the state, accessible and conversational with the voters in person and here on facebook, and I can't think of a single position she's taken that I've taken issue with. She was our nominee in 2008 and suffered from the Hope and Change crap that put Obama in the White House. I've also said for years that this seat - for some reason - takes two shots at to win (Hodes lost his first race with Charlie before defeating him in 2006 - I'd talked with candidates who opposed Charlie in primaries before and told them that they needed to consider their first run an investment - I wish they had listened). Charlie's had 6 terms in Washington and wants us to send him back for a 7th (after running originally in support of term limits). He's a self-proclaimed moderate Republican and sending him back will erode our party's renewed energy brought on by the TEA party. Giuda is a nice guy - and a veteran to boot! I'd happily support him in November, but we need a candidate people know, and there's just no reason to walk away from Jennifer.


Finally (I'm working down in scale, but arguably up in influence over your cost of living - taxes) NH Senate 12: Jim Luther. This one comes down to winability. I like John Lewicke just fine - he's Libertarian-minded like me - but we need to win this seat, and Peggy Gilmore is popular (this seems to be a theme with the Democrats - where it's all about popularity rather than position on issues - it's like they are voting for high-school class president or prom queen or something). In order to take Gilmore out, we need a serious candidate who can deliver their message - Jim Luther is that candidate. He's economically focused and that's really what it is all about right now....We need Republicans in Concord to right this ship - the Democrats can't blame Bush for their irresponsibility in Concord, and they've had their chance - and done a good deal of damage that now needs to be fixed. 'nuff said here.

3 comments:

  1. Nice analysis Gerry. I tend to disagree with your Ovide assessment, except for the part about his defense of the Catholic church coming back to haunt him. Other than that, I believe he would be good for NH in DC, fiscally and Constitutionally. I like Jack, but you have a point about electability; Stephen seems to have the name and connections, although I think Jack would be better for the immediate term, with his no-BS attitude and approach. I'm not quite sure of Stephen's "compromise factor", having been in politics his whole life - I want a pit-bull who doesn't care about re-election. I'll hope for the best.

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  2. Thanks Tom. Ovide and Jack would both be good for NH - I agree. I'd happily support either of them in the general. I just think Jack would have a hard time winning in November. Ovide and Bender are near clones (and Ovide's absence from public life for so long - has he done anything since losing the gubernatorial race to Shaheen 14 years ago? - make his name recognition problem almost the same as Bender's). My pick of Bender is completely related to the Catholic church issue - both from the legal defense side and from the social-conservatism side. I want the best (Constitutional) candidate for the job and I'll take the one with less baggage (-;

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  3. @Tom - your link is broken on your name..typo on the http://www.granitegrok.com domain (extra r before the grok).

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